CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32016/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This was determined to likely be separate from CME: 2024-07-16T23:12Z. There were multiple source candidates for this CME, including the M1.9 flare and eruption from AR 3744 or an eruption with moving/opening field lines from AR 3751 around 2024-07-16T20:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-19T12:06Z (-7.83h, +7.83h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): -17.0 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 22.0 initial CME speed: 853.0 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-07-17T02:36Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 20.35 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-07-18T15:45Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement